|
General
Trading Information
If
you are a beginner or an experienced trader, the theory
you need to learn is that you have to "have a plan"
when trading. Trading is a business of "containing
risk" and "evaluating profit potential".
Sure, there is some "guessing" that is done
(we have to identify the future and no one really knows
what's going to happen - right). But the practice of
using technical analysis to help determine the "potential
future price moves" has been use for hundreds of
years. So, as we begin this section, I'm going to discuss
trading in three parts - "Planning", "Technical
Analysis" and "the calculated risk".
These are the three components I feel we all MUST use
when deciding to place a trade.
Planning
your trade
The
first three elements...
This
process is very simple to understand - everyone needs
to completely understand WHAT it is they are doing and
WHAT is the likely outcome (good or bad). When I instruct
my clients to "Plan your trade", I want them
to be able to tell me EXACTLY how they will try to ENTER
the trade, where their stop (or EXIT) level will be
and where they expect to pull profits in the trade.
These are the elements that all traders MUST learn to
accomplish. Not knowing exactly what to expect from
your trade can leave you in a very dangerous position.
So,
let's recap a bit... What are the three elements you
MUST identify before you decide to place the actual
trade??
| The First Three Elements of Planning
Your Trade |
How
do you plan to execute your ENTRY trade
(and Where)?
Where
wil you place your stop/exit level/order?
What
is your projected profit level (where you
will exit your trade)? |
|
If
you can't identify these first three things, then you
are basically flying blind - throwing darts so to say.
The
purpose of forcing you to identify these three elements
is so you can begin to PLAN how you attempt to trade
this signal. Sometimes you have to adopt different strategies
and possibly increased or decreased risk/profit levels.
By identifying these levels and knowing what to expect,
you can go into your trade knowing exactly what you
are risking and what you hope to achieve. Let me give
you an example...
| My Example Trading Elements |
| Assume
I found a buy signal in XYZ and it closed at $22
today. Also assume XYZ had been in a strong downtrend
for many weeks (from $40) and had a recent low
of $19.80. Let's also assume I wanted to trade
300 shares. This might be one way to plan our
trade.
How
do you plan to execute your ENTRY trade
(and Where)?
First
off.. because the recent low is $2.20
away from the current price ($22).
I also know the markets often trend
is smaller up/down waves and I believe
I can increase my profit potential
by trading with limit orders (expecting
a pullback). This would be my plan
for the entry trade..
Order
#1 - Place a BUY LIMIT order @ $20.90
for 300 shares
Order #2 - Place a BUY STOPLIMIT order
@ $22.50 for 300 shares
Both of these orders would be placed
in an OCA (one cancels all) group
- meaning the first order that executes
would cancel the other.
Why
did I place the order like this? The
first order expects XYZ to pullback
- thus reducing my risk in the trade
and increasing my profit potential.
If this order gets filled, I'll have
only about $1 risk for the trade.
If
not, the other order (which is $0.50
above the current price) may get filled.
This order is basically a "fail-safe"
order to allow my entry if the market
begins to run upward.
What
happens if neither of the orders gets
filled in the next few days?? This
is when we would re-evaluate our trade
decision and potentially alter the
entry mechanism a bit. We may choose
to simply "go in" with a
market order (especially if the current
price is below $22). Or we might adjust
our two existing order price levels
a bit. Either way, it is important
to have patience and "let
the trades come to you"
- don't
chase trades.
|
Where
wil you place your stop/exit level/order?
Assuming
I got filled with my entry order #1,
I would place my stop below $19.80
(at first). This is a support level
that appears to be holding (meaning
market price should attempt to stay
above this level.
If
I got filled with my second entry
order, I would still use the $19.80
as a "key point", but I
might now be able to widthstand the
risk of almost $3 per share ($900).
Another common method of placing stops
(that I like to use) is to average
the current three bars lows or highs.
In this case (because we are trying
to go LONG - we would use the lows
(and include the current bar). Let's
assume that value was $21.25. I would
then feel comfortable with a stop
level between $21~21.25 for this trade.
Everyone
should understand that "individual
needs and requirements" often
dictate "how and where"
you place your trades. I might trade
a bit differently than others, but
the theories I'm trying to teach you
are universal, you just have to adopt
"levels" that meet your
needs.
Now,
let's assume neither of my 2 entry
orders got filled and I'm deciding
to "jump in now" with a
market order. The first thing I would
do is go back to the chart and look
at the current price action - obviously
it did not come down enough to hit
trade #1, nor did it go up enough
to hit #2. So, it's kind of "drifting".
Thus,
I could "jump in" and place
a stop order (to protect my equity)
at a level that I feel comfortable
with. I know that $19.80 is support
and I know the market is drifting
a bit (but should continue higher).
So, let's assume I "jumped in"
at $21.65.. I might place a stop a
bit higher than the $19.80 lows (to
further reduce my risk.. also knowing
if I do get stopped out, I could always
get back into the trade again). Remember,
this is a plan of calculated risk.
XYZ has not run up yet, so we are
attempting to contain our risk and
plan for a future price move. So,
let's assume I entered my stop at
$20 - my risk is $1.65 (maybe a bit
high for others, but remember.. our
original stop loss was going to be
about $3 - so it is much more "contained").
|
What
is your projected profit level (where you
will exit your trade)?
OK,
this side of the trade we have not
discussed much (yet). You know the
stock came down from $40 to below
$20 and is not back to $22 (or there
about) . So, where do we place our
profit target levels??
There
are a few techniques that I like to
use to help find these levels..
1.
Use support/resistance levels to find
locations where market price has stalled
in the past. These can often be good
levels in the future.
2. Find DOJIs on the chart.. These
are other signs of support/resistance.
So they can also be levels where the
market may move.
3. Average the last 3~5 candle ranges
and then multiply that level by 2
or three. For example, if the average
range (high-low) for the last 5 candles
is $0.62, then a decent (starting
point) profit target would be $1.5~$2.0
(for short term targets.
4. Use Fibbonacci levels to identify
potential price levels.
5. Use longer term charts (like weekly
charts) to identify other support/resistance
levels and trend channels. You might
be able to find a level that was not
visible on the daily or shorter term
charts.
Now
that we have a number of ways to find
a profit target level and have already
established our stops, we simply need
to determine "what we want from
this trade". Most of the time,
it is best to pick something that
is "reasonable" and not
"totally unrealistic".
If
my calculations are correct, we are
risking about $1~1.5 for a potential
gain of $1.5 or better. Not very good
really, but still - lets assume we
made the trade. Would you be happy
with a $600+ gain in a few days/weeks
if we were right?
Remember,
we'll continue to re-adjust our stop
levels as the trade continues. So,
our risk will decrease over time.
The PT levels can be re-adjusted,
but I suggest traders pull at least
50% of their position at their original
projected profit target levels - then
let the rest run with a stop.
|
|
|
Dealing
with the "TIME FACTOR"
Most
traders often "forget about time" as a factor
of their trades. Sometimes, they are right - other times
they are wrong. I generally use time as a factor for
the actions of the markets. What does all this mean??
Assume
our BUY signal (above) happened yesterday and we tried
to get into the trade for three days (without success).
So, three additional days of "nothing" happened
- is our buy signal still valid or not? This is what
I mean.
The
best advice I can offer is this... "Let the trades
come to you". This buy signal is probably correct,
but the timing might be a little off. So, chasing this
trade right now might result in a loss (if we don't
see any upward price action soon). One thing you can
do if your original trading signal "runs on........"
is to place a BUY LIMIT ORDER at a price level ABOVE
the trigger price. This is a way of saying "I want
to BUY this stock when the market begins to RALLY".
You can still contain the risk values by using stops
and you will still have a profit target in place.
The
general rule for using the "Time Factor" is,
if the trade does not move in the expect direction right
away - don't freak out. Remember, the market moves in
little up and down waves all the time anyway. The thing
you want to consider though is "how do you adopt
your trade to these new conditions"??
If
you are already in the trade and it has gone nowhere,
it is probably wise to tighten stops a bit - to protect
agains un-needed losses. Remember though, stops that
are "Too Tight" could get you stopped out
with a loss just before a future move - so leave some
room in your stops for the market to "fluctuate
a bit".
If
you are not in the trade, then you might go back to
the top of this page and re-evaluate your entry mechanism,
stops and profit targets.
Another
VERY VALID form of analysis is to use the longer term
charts for additional confirmation of the signals.
|